Today the left wing bloggers who are not attacking Sarah Palin are laying out a strategy to attack the last bastion of conservatism and noObamians: the American South. It seems they need a scarecrow and the white southerners, racists all or so it is blogged, are the new one. They fear a Southern rebellion against the New Boss and a reigniting of conservative philosophy. It isn't happening but it is the devil of their dreams.
It is the hallmark of the inexperienced politico to fight the last war instead of the next one. 2012 will be about The Wrath of Women not so concerned with political power, but who will not consider a declining lifestyle a necessary sacrifice, just an importuning arrogance by a new elite. Wrath isn't an ideology.
Nothing changed. Palin will have a rich vein of resentment to tap in 2012 and Hillary Clinton, who subborned herself to Obama, won't be able to make that trick work. On the other hand, four years is a long time and just as many Democrats fled to the Republicans in 2000 (eg, Senator Shelby), allegiances will be shifting and some unpredictably. The catastrophe of the Obama election for the gay community is but one example of a part of the Obama coalition already feeling the pain of having disregarded the realities of identity politics in the fine print.
The Republican Party will not be revitalized by a surge of the core values of the last 25 years, but a new set of values emerging from a new coalition of voters who find themselves mystified by a wealthy elite of technocrats who insist everyone can't live in the Emerald City but the unworthy can certainly pay taxes to it. If the Republicans want to make a comeback, they need a transparent plan that is neither punitive nor exclusive.
Rome did not fall because it was corrupt; it fell because it failed to produce anything of value except new laws for the provinces.